2005
We need to fight like hell to retain both the New Jersey and Virginia governors' chairs. This will be tough sledding, absolutely -- but what better way to prove we're a party that bounces right back up off the mat? We should also do our best to pick off Bloomberg in New York, also an uphill struggle but a very worthy one.
2006
GUBERNATORIAL:
Takeovers:
Arkansas - Mike Huckabee will be termed out, and there's still plenty of blue in Arkansas.
California - We need to play this one carefully. I don't think we'll be able to beat Schwarzenegger, and the race will soak up money like a sponge, but without contesting the seat very seriously we won't be poised to take advantage of any developing scandal or policy failure.
Colorado - Bill Owens is termed out, and Colorado is building a serious Democratic farm team as it grows ever so incrementally more progressive.
Connecticut - Jodi Rell was never elected and the Republican Party in Connecticut is on the defensive. We can and should take this race.
Florida - Yes, Florida Democrats have been suffering mightily, but with Jeb! termed out we can make a splashy showing for less money than California that will help rebuild the state party structure for 2008.
Hawai'i - Linda Lingle may be called "popular" by the SCLM, but she was really just taking advantage of the Hawai'i Ds' bad breaks in 2002. She doesn't fit her state well and could easily and cheaply be defeated.
Maryland - Bob Ehrlich should be one of our top targets.
Massachusetts - But Mitt Romney should be THE top target. Kerry for Governor! I am absolutely serious.
Minnesota - Say what you like about the upper Mississippi trending red, I think we can take Pawlenty out in '06.
Nevada - This state is going our way. Kenny Guinn is termed out. But who is a likely candidate? Oscar Goodman, or is he too old/too unpopular outside Clark County? I don't know much about the inner workings of Nevada politics.
New York - Pataki is beginning to cease to wear well. It may take a lot of doing, but I think I know the man to do it, and I think you do, too.
Ohio - Finally, we'll see the end of Bob Taft. If Ohio remains the linchpin of our presidential hopes in 2008, it will help greatly to have it administered, for the first time in nearly forever, by a Democrat. This would be a huge breakthrough.
Rhode Island - This has got to be a mistake. Don Carcieri may not be a right-winger, but he's no Lincoln Chafee either. We can win this race.
Vermont - We did not have it together in 2004 here, not at all. Can we change that? We had sure better try.
Defend:
Arizona - Janet Napolitano is going places, but we need to reelect her first.
Iowa - I bet you Vilsack will run for a third term to keep his name alive looking toward 2008. We have seen that there are problems with Iowa. We need to make sure that his reelection is not one of them.
Kansas - Gov. Sebelius is a first-termer in a red, red state. Fortunately, campaigning in Kansas is not as pricey as some places (KCMO TV stations excepted).
Michigan - Gov. Granholm is probably not in much trouble, but we need to make sure it stays that way; she's a good, articulate national spokeswoman, and likely a future Senator.
New Hampshire - Gov. Benson didn't enjoy the traditional second-term rule in New Hampshire. We have to make sure that Gov. Lynch does.
New Mexico - I can say almost exactly the same thing about Bill Richardson that I did about Jennifer Granholm.
Oklahoma - Brad Henry's victory was a gift in 2002. We may have to fight very hard to avoid having it snatched away from us in 2006.
Pennsylvania - Ed Rendell is probably not in trouble, but this is worth some attention.
Tennessee - Phil Bredesen is in a state that might be very hard for us to get any traction in. We should defend him assiduously.
Wisconsin - If there's any truth to the rumors of Wisconsin following Iowa's lead, we should be wary about Jim Doyle's race and lend him some aid.
Wyoming - Another unlikely Western governorship, and another race that we can't let fall through the cracks.
SENATE:
Takeovers:
Arizona - Only if Kyl retires (unlikely), but then a very serious race for us.
Connecticut - Goddamn it, I know this should be listed in the "Defend" column if it's listed anywhere, but we need a progressive primary challenger to shake up Joementum's complacency. I want to see two DEMOCRATS representing Connecticut.
Indiana - If Lugar retires, this could be a sleeper race that breaks our way.
Missouri - This will also be a tough one, but there's no route back to a majority that doesn't go through it.
Montana - A perennial Democratic hope, and perhaps one Governor Schweitzer could help us realize (not as a candidate, but as a godfather to one)?
Nevada - We'll likely never take out John Ensign if we don't do it in 2006.
Ohio - An unlikely pickup, but we have to make it a real race. Contest every seat!
Pennsylvania - This is where to concentrate our fire, man-on-dog style. Santorum is OUT OF THERE in '06!
Rhode Island - I'm listing this as a "pickup" only in the sense that we need to find a way to end the flirtation and get Linc Chafee to see there really is no future for him in the ultra-right-wing GOP of today.
Virginia - Two Senator Warners? It's not outside the realm of possibility.
Defend:
California - Almost certainly a non-issue, but we sure can't afford to lose Dianne Feinstein's seat, and she is getting up there.
Florida - Top of the list. Bill Nelson may be way off to the right, but he's the best we can hope for in Florida these days, and he deserves our support.
Maryland - If Sarbanes retires, we have to make sure the GOPers don't slip a stealth candidate in.
Michigan - If Debbie Stabenow is ever vulnerable, 2006 will be the time. We MUST retain this seat.
Minnesota - Ditto Mark Dayton.
Nebraska - I dislike much of Ben Nelson's politics, but he's all we've got. We can't afford to lose a seat.
New York - I'm loth to list this seat at all, but what if Pataki or Giluiani run? HRC will likely still win, but we can't get complacent.
Washington - If we win this race, and depending on how next week's absentee ballot count goes, then we may just end up totally owning Washington politics for some years to come.
West Virginia - It seems sacriligous to say it, but what if Sen. Byrd retires or can't run? This state has been blowing hot and cold for us. Hopefully our new governor will help.
2007
I bet you that we end up winning the Louisiana governor's race in much less of a photo finish than last time. But Kentucky? Mississippi? These will not be easy, even though we have got to make the effort. I would recommend focusing on Kentucky to the exclusion of Mississippi.
